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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.